Politics shit innit

[Andyben]

Is that what I said?

[mkowl]

3 minutes ago, Andyben said:

Is that what I said?

The problem with the Budget aside from crashing the forex rate was that it relied on Govt borrowing to fund tax cuts, that you hoped would create economic growth and presumably this would trickle down to the masses.

I hate to say the reality is it would pour into the higher earners and dribble for the rest of us. 

It was not that dis similar to the Keynesian approach that Govt spending via borrowing creates the economic growth

The UK had generous corporate tax rates, incentives to invest but yet our capital investment and overall productivity remained low.

The problem was that at a day to day level, all the core things that facilitate us, the NHS, education, the care system, transport network are failing somewhat. 

I would say the general public want some middle ground between taxation raised, spending on said core services and a safety net in place for those that cannot look after themselves.

 

[Andyben]

Did I say I supported Truss?

Is that what I said?

 

[Andyben]

22 minutes ago, mkowl said:

The problem with the Budget aside from crashing the forex rate was that it relied on Govt borrowing to fund tax cuts, that you hoped would create economic growth and presumably this would trickle down to the masses.

I hate to say the reality is it would pour into the higher earners and dribble for the rest of us. 

It was not that dis similar to the Keynesian approach that Govt spending via borrowing creates the economic growth

The UK had generous corporate tax rates, incentives to invest but yet our capital investment and overall productivity remained low.

The problem was that at a day to day level, all the core things that facilitate us, the NHS, education, the care system, transport network are failing somewhat. 

I would say the general public want some middle ground between taxation raised, spending on said core services and a safety net in place for those that cannot look after themselves.

 

It had nothing to do with forex rates BTW.

That was a tertiary effect 

[mkowl]

18 minutes ago, Andyben said:

It had nothing to do with forex rates BTW.

That was a tertiary effect 

And that is the nub of any economic policy, you may plan to do x to achieve y but the point being the change in x impacts a, b, c etc etc, but b and c impacts d, which then actually impacts x. The classic circular function.

Ok the economists in anoraks - the econometric guys try to get their equations to plot this but the mapping of the past is not necessarily a guarantee of the future.

 

[Andyben]

Miles off Kev.

Read this

https://capx.co/did-liz-truss-really-cause-the-bond-market-rout/

[Andyben]

45 minutes ago, Andyben said:

Did I say I supported Truss?

Is that what I said?

 

I'm guessing you agree that I didn't.

What I will say is that the mini budget under her was the first time in decades that truly conservative economic policies were enacted, and the LDI bubble bursting at the same time (which had nothing to do with what KK was trying to do) was jumped on by the media as bejng his fault, even though the markets had priced this out for weeks and if there was no  KK minibudget , it would still have happened but the bla e would have prob been Brexit or something similar.

[mkowl]

10 hours ago, Andyben said:

Miles off Kev.

Read this

https://capx.co/did-liz-truss-really-cause-the-bond-market-rout/

But that is one person's opinion doesn't mean its right.

Perhaps the economy does need a jolt from somewhere. And some of the suggestions, in time, were a direction of travel I could accept. But tax reductions should arise when the circumstances are appropriate, in itself I don't think it works. Flip that and increasing tax for the Govt to spend is equally not going to work. 

Perhaps I am simply dull in thinking what we have, a balance between public sector provision for core needs working alongside the private sector doing the rest is actually OK.

Not that this isn't room for massive improvements. The metric for the NHS or education is how much is spent in £s. Never how effectively the £s are spent. Do you want the State running everything, the recent Post Office scandal gives an answer to that.

Do I want private companies running core infrastructure probably not, Thames Water a prime example, the railways. 

Do I want those that innovate, take business risks that generate jobs and growth to be taxed moderately YES, but do I want the vulnerable to be adequately supported YES.

I talk a lot about tax in my day job, I would say there is always a slight grudging but ultimate acceptance that the tax they pay is fair. (I will exempt IHT, the angst that causes).

Sunak vaunts the recent NI cuts. It will give me £200 perhaps. Which is fine until I popped to a garage recently with a damaged tyre. Well in fact it was 4 pot holed damaged tyres not 1, about 500 quid to sort. A trivial example but demonstrates that balance

[Gamblor]

22 hours ago, Skamp said:

Just watching the Green Party's election broadcast.

 

Fuck me, they've out Laboured Labour in promising to spend money like it's going out of fashion without explaining where their magic money tree is planted.

I think if you sign up to be a member they let you hug their magic money tree. 

[Andyben]

On 08/06/2024 at 17:28, Gamblor said:

I think if you sign up to be a member they let you hug their magic money tree. 

Is that the same tree they'll hang apostates from if they get in power and enact Sharia Law?

[BraddersTim]

49 minutes ago, Andyben said:

Is that the same tree they'll hang apostates from if they get in power and enact Sharia Law?

That's a weird post.

[Andyben]

4 minutes ago, BraddersTim said:

That's a weird post.

Not if you've noticed what's happened to the Green Party recently 

https://amp.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/may/07/leeds-green-party-councillor-says-sorry-for-comments-about-gaza-conflict

 

[BraddersTim]

21 minutes ago, Andyben said:

Not if you've noticed what's happened to the Green Party recently 

https://amp.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/may/07/leeds-green-party-councillor-says-sorry-for-comments-about-gaza-conflict

 

No you can't have that.

It's one person making offensive remarks, not a whole party, it's not as if what he said is their official policy is it?

It's just ridiculous, especially because every party has some loons coming out with outrageous stuff, Yes if a cabinet member says it, it's serious but a councillor?  Come on, he's hardly elite level is he? 

Edited June 10 by BraddersTim

[Andyben]

7 minutes ago, BraddersTim said:

No you can't have that.

It's one person making offensive remarks, not a whole party, it's not as if what he said is their official policy is it?

It's just ridiculous, especially because every party has some loons coming out with outrageous stuff, Yes if a cabinet member says it, it's serious but a councillor?  Come on, he's hardly elite level is he? 

20 General Election Green Party candidates being  investigated for antisemitism after three more were banned from standing.

Majority are former Corbynites who left Labour - well those racists that haven't joined Galloway.

I pointed this out right at the start 

Edited June 10 by Andyben

[JBO]

How many MPs for Palestine do we need in this country?

[BraddersTim]

26 minutes ago, Andyben said:

20 General Election Green Party candidates being  investigated for antisemitism after three more were banned from standing.

Majority are former Corbynites who left Labour - well those racists that haven't joined Galloway.

I pointed this out right at the start 

Right at the start of what?  I'm not a Green voter so I'm not particularly inclined to defend them, but "antisemitism" could be anything right now.  Calling what Israel is doing "genocide" could be defined as antisemitic, but it's not.

As for Galloway, complete ****, I'm surprised that his routine still works after what he did in Bradford.  He's not interested in Gaza, he doesn't even turn up to debates on it in the HoC after telling his constituents that he would be their voice.

[Otto_Man]

Got a feel of 1992 about it this election, Labour couldn't lose until they did...

[BraddersTim]

Is that it for the Leaders debates?  I hope so, because what a turgid shower of shit they were.

An increasingly desperate Sunak, shouting, hectoring and lying his way through, doing everything possible to scare the public  and Starmer, trying his best not to say anything, not a word, that would give Tory voters a reason not to vote for him.

David Cameron ushered in the worst possible generation of MP's when he caved in to the ERG.  I don't think that we'll ever get back to serious MP's debating issues properly.

[Gleadless Owl]

I'm late to the party on this one, so may repeat what's been said or just be waffling. Used to consider myself left wing until about 5 years ago. The left have moved so far left that being in the middle has made you right wing, or even far right these days. Social media is an absolute toilet for opinions. How you can be a far right, fascist bigot for saying women don't have cocks is beyond my tiny brain.

Neither of the leaders has any principles. Sunak is a gormless rich boy unaware of how he's found himself where he is. Starmer is a lying chancer who's terrified of saying anything in public that make his public opinion change by 1%. This is why Farage has stepped in.

My uncle was a miner and my old man a steelworker (no tool maker jokes please 🤣) so I grew up hating the tories. Maybe it's nostalgia, but Thatcher or Kinnock seemed like it would make a genuine difference. Voting this time seems irrelevant as there's not that extreme between the two parties any more. 

I voted for Corbyn in his first attempt, but 2nd time I thought he'd completely lost the plot. Was almost like he was trying his best to lose. If you didn't like Thatcher or Corbyn, at least they had values they stuck to unlike any of these current charlatans.

[Tewksbury]

It's the illusion of choice, there's very little to choose between the policies of the three main parties that will actually make a difference to people, it's just presented differently. What every party says it does and what it actually does are completely different things.

One party stays in till everyone hates them, then the other lot have a go till everyone hates them and so on and so forth. The British public hasn't voted for a party for a long time, just against the others.

[mkowl]

Apparently I am supposed to vote for the party I favour. Today is more about voting to prevent those I don't favour. 

I suspect like many I am endorsing a change of direction, but hardly a ringing one and a sense of potentially living to regret some of the political decisions thereafter my vote helped.

But enough about Brexit 

[Skamp]

If you want to see your taxes go up, illegal immigration numbers go through the roof, pay CGT when you sell your house, watch the women you love have their female identities eroded, watch the cost of net zero get massively out of hand with the resulting increase in energy bills, watch our national defence collapse, then go ahead and vote Labour.

 

Don't say you've not been warned.

[Fat Eric]

😂😂😂

[BraddersTim]

43 minutes ago, Skamp said:

If you want to see your taxes go up, illegal immigration numbers go through the roof, pay CGT when you sell your 😂house, watch the women you love have their female identities eroded, watch the cost of net zero get massively out of hand with the resulting increase in energy bills, watch our national defence collapse, then go ahead and vote Labour.

 

Don't say you've not been warned.

Yeah OK Rishi.. Dumbest post of the year by a fucking country mile.

😂😂😂

[BraddersTim]

If you're going to do a political rant...this is how you nail it.

 

 https://t.co/DMeQKwuHE6
(https://x.com/JonathanPieNews/status/1808078089370349656?t=j3mIG1Agi5XCCmuhu3YRIA&s=03) 

Edited July 4 by BraddersTim
k

[Skamp]

1 hour ago, BraddersTim said:

Yeah OK Rishi.. Dumbest post of the year by a fucking country mile.

😂😂😂

We'll see.  Remember, you've been warned.

[BraddersTim]

1 hour ago, Skamp said:

We'll see.  Remember, you've been warned.

😂😂😂

[mkowl]

8 hours ago, Skamp said:

If you want to see your taxes go up, illegal immigration numbers go through the roof, pay CGT when you sell your house, watch the women you love have their female identities eroded, watch the cost of net zero get massively out of hand with the resulting increase in energy bills, watch our national defence collapse, then go ahead and vote Labour.

 

Don't say you've not been warned.

Well the last figures showed 650,000 net migration in, so the Tories have not really practiced what they preached.

Tax as a % of GDP is at its highest level outside war time.

The Tories have frozen IHT thresholds so more Estates are becoming liable.

The Tories have brought in restrictions for buy to let landlords and now those with Air Bnbs

They hiked the corp tax rate by a third - as my clients are now seeing

They have flipped from a health and social care levy to reducing NI with no consideration of how that is going to be funded

They fucked up the trading discussions on the post Brexit position

They fed at the trough of PPE corruption

And 12 hour waits in A & E are commonplace.

I mean it's hardly been great advertisement for them to be re-elected 

[Andyben]

2 minutes ago, mkowl said:

They fucked up the trading discussions on the post Brexit position

Now we've gone for 7th to 4th in the world's biggest exporters since brexit so I'm not having that.

The rest yes. It was fucked up monumentally which is why I cancelled my membership 

[mkowl]

53 minutes ago, Andyben said:

Now we've gone for 7th to 4th in the world's biggest exporters since brexit so I'm not having that.

The rest yes. It was fucked up monumentally which is why I cancelled my membership 

I see so many conflicting stats on the export side, all seeking to support their view. So the unbiased truth would be interesting on that score. Still think aspects of thar could be improved.

Anyway, the Tories need a spell on the bench just to get to their senses. 

[BraddersTim]

3 hours ago, Andyben said:

Now we've gone for 7th to 4th in the world's biggest exporters since brexit so I'm not having that.

The rest yes. It was fucked up monumentally which is why I cancelled my membership 

We went from 4th to 4th, depends what period you measure.

Take Gold and serviced out and what does it look like then? 

[BraddersTim]

@Andybenwhat was that prediction of yours again? 

[Andyben]

That Starmer would be PM and the Tories would deservedly lose.

Crazy that Labour under Starmer got fewer total votes than Corbyn in 2019, don't you think?

[Otto_Man]

I think last time out you were choosing between 2 different visions for the country, this time it's felt more like deciding whether or not you put your phone in your left pocket or your right one.

Ironic that when the Tories introduced the voter ID thing they were accused of only doing it for themselves and the first general election we have it they suffer their worst defeat in years.

[mkowl]

You can see why Labour as well as the Tories want to keep first past the post. They both benefit significantly from it.

The nuance of the results fascinates me. Various boundary changes meant the map would change a bit. But our constituency has gone Labour, albeit the Tories not far behind. Harpenden which is a wealthy commuter town to the Lib Dems, The Reform vote and 4 seats, similar with the Greens, Labour losing to Corbyn and independents where there was high Muslim votes, the south / southwest outside the large conurbation areas no Labour seats, Tories imploding in the outer M25, the Midlands seeing the Tories ousted. Could go on.

[Wollongong Owl]

He was supposed to stop the boats not the votes 

[mkowl]

The Tories licking their wounds and rightly so. Curtice the polling chap who was pretty spot on with the Exit poll calling they had lost it, Labour just let them implode without doing anything dramatic policy wise to win it. 

The direction the Tories go will be interesting. They have been chipped away by Reform, the Lib Dems and Labour in different areas of the country. Chase Reform and they won't regain the affluent areas.

The one aspect is that UK politics is not currently a 2 party fight, albeit the system favours them, but a 3 opponent fight across the country, just not the same opponent everywhere

[mkowl]

2 minutes ago, Wollongong Owl said:

He was supposed to stop the boats not the votes 

I mean an emotive subject but the 35k who arrive on the boats is nothing compared to the net 650k that came on a Visa. 

That policy may have appealed in certain areas of the country but in Surrey, Hertfordshire, Somerset there was another dynamic at play.

The most salient comment of the night was probably Jeremy Hunt, you aren't going to vote for a divided party, more focused on the internal squabbling, he actually wished Labour well in now trying to fix the NHS clearly a battle he had lost in Cabinet. 

Many factors why the Tories lost but the mood was predominantly that they lost the publics trust. Starmer gained it without it being resounding in terms of votes.

More pertinent is why turnout was around 60% I think, 40% of the electorate just not engaged in the process 

[Andyben]

Crazy that Reform got 500k more votes than the LibDems, but 67 fewer seats

Edited July 5 by Andyben

[Andyben]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/results 

[mkowl]

3 minutes ago, Andyben said:

Crazy that Reform got 500k more votes than the LibDems, but 67 fewer seats

Like I say whilst the 2 main parties ultimately are the main beneficiaries of First Past the Post it ain't changing 

There should be a form of PR but you look elsewhere around the world and question that wisdom 

[EastCraigsOwl]

Good to see the SNP take a skelping up here. However, I do find their narrative that "it's not a reflection on Independence" a tad strange. Yes, people in England may well have voted Labour to 'get rid of the Tories' but, up here? There were barely any to start with. Delighted that Douglas Ross got his comeuppance though!

I wonder if Terrestrial TV Rishi will obtain a Green Card before he fucks off to the US this time.

Oh, and, I predict Nigel Farage will resign within a month. He may even join Rishi across the pond...

[BraddersTim]

5 hours ago, Andyben said:

That Starmer would be PM and the Tories would deservedly lose.

Crazy that Labour under Starmer got fewer total votes than Corbyn in 2019, don't you think?

Not that one...the other one.

Something about No Absolute Majority?

Does that ring any bells? 

[mkowl]

"At Leeds, Starmer was influenced by the indie music of the 1980s, from The Smiths and The Wedding Present to Orange Juice and Aztec Camera"

 Definitely deserves to be PM just for that 

[Andyben]

He'll say it was bananarama and fun boy three if someone else asks 

Edited July 5 by Andyben

[BraddersTim]

1 hour ago, Andyben said:

He'll say it was bananarama and fun boy three if someone else asks 

Tbf it could be all of them, they're decent additions to the list!

[Skamp]

Well, as expected ,Labour win by an absolute landslide and will now govern for the foreseeable future.

Congratulations, and I mean that sincerely.  Starmer has turned a disaster for Labour into a disaster for the Tories in 5 years. Or has he? Was it the Tories that turned a triumph for them that made it a triumph for Labour?

I suppose we could debate this for the next 5 years but it is what it is.  The Torries will need to have their inquiry and try and find a new leader from the few that's left and Starmer will set about leading us into ...

 

Well, let's revisit where he leads us another day.

 

Drink your Champagne and enjoy the moment.

[BraddersTim]

52 minutes ago, Skamp said:

Well, as expected ,Labour win by an absolute landslide and will now govern for the foreseeable future.

Congratulations, and I mean that sincerely.  Starmer has turned a disaster for Labour into a disaster for the Tories in 5 years. Or has he? Was it the Tories that turned a triumph for them that made it a triumph for Labour?

I suppose we could debate this for the next 5 years but it is what it is.  The Torries will need to have their inquiry and try and find a new leader from the few that's left and Starmer will set about leading us into ...

 

Well, let's revisit where he leads us another day.

 

Drink your Champagne and enjoy the moment.

I'm  like many people Skamp,  Starmer doesn't thrill me and his austerity light offering, just following the Tories fiscal plans aren't going to make much of a difference.  My hope, and I think I'm going to have to wait for it, is that Labour are more bold in Govt than they have been in opposition, otherwise you will have nothing to complain about because effectively you'll be living under a centrist Conservative Govt in all but name.  You'd be much happier about it than I will!

As for the election, the Tories tore themselves apart and gifted it to Labour, who just had to be careful not to say too much or mess it up. Even I would have liked to have seen Labour have to work harder for it.  That said, I am enjoying the destruction of the Tory party that started with the ERG and has led to today.  It feels good to see some of the vilest characters, like my former MP Philip Davies get the kicking they deserve.

 

 

[Andyben]

Here's your new Attorney General...

https://www.matrixlaw.co.uk/member/richard-hermer/

and Equalities Minister 

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/harriet-harman-expresses-regret-over-links-to-paedophile-campaign-group-9151512.html

Good news for Asylum Speakers and Nonces in the first 24hrs of the new government 

[Andyben]

9 hours ago, Andyben said:

Here's your new Attorney General...

https://www.matrixlaw.co.uk/member/richard-hermer/

and Equalities Minister 

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/harriet-harman-expresses-regret-over-links-to-paedophile-campaign-group-9151512.html

Good news for Asylum Speakers and Nonces in the first 24hrs of the new government 

So the new AG is a supporter of BDS and other anti-Israeli programs and represented Gerry Adams.

Wonderful